James discusses the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, Yemen, and US-Israeli relations on Radio Islam.
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Transcript
[Anchor] Yes, it is the Middle East Report with James M. Dorsey who is an award-winning scholar and journalist with a different perspective on the Middle East and a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore. James, thank you very much for your time and welcome to Radio Islam International.
[James M. Dorsey] Always a pleasure to be with you. Good morning.
[Anchor] Thank you for joining us this morning. So, James, increasingly the United States and Iran are locked in an escalation trap. Rather than producing victory for one another, the renewed hostilities are likely to return the warring parties to square one.
[James M. Dorsey] It’s hard to see how either the United States or Iran can dial down tensions without being seen to have conceded. That is the issue that is undermined from the outset negotiations to end the war. Both the United States and Iran insist that whatever negotiations take place, let alone agreement is reached, is on their terms.
Neither Iran nor the United States wants a return to all-out war, but they’re willing to risk it. Making things worse, both the United States and Iran believe that time is on their side. In addition, against all odds, since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, U.S. President Donald Trump like most of his predecessors, maintains that Iran will bow to coercion and economic and military pressure. Fact is that it’s a strategy that has failed for the last 47 years. As a result, neither the United States nor Iran will emerge victorious from this latest round of hostilities. Instead, it takes both parties back to square one.
All of this is not to say that a negotiated way out of the impasse is impossible. There are various formulas on the table. For any of those to have legs, both the U.S. and Iran would have to change their mindset. That is a tall order, given that there is no indication of change in either Washington or Tehran, despite U.S. claims that the Iranian leadership is divided between hardliners and pragmatists. More likely is that they have practical differences, but are fundamentally two sides of the same coin.
[Anchor] Also, James, the Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz could be a diminishing asset. The more it attacks shipping in the waterway, the more it incentivises others to reduce their dependency on the strait.
[James M. Dorsey] Indeed, the Strait of Hormuz’s strategic value for Iran is in the short and medium term. Long term, the strait’s significance is likely to diminish. Two factors are likely to reduce its importance.
One is the shift from fossil fuels to alternative energy, which will reduce the Gulf states and the world’s dependence on oil and gas. The other is that regional players are already developing alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates is planning to build a second pipeline to its eastern coast on the Gulf of Oman.
The UAE also intends to build new ports on the Gulf of Oman. Similarly, Saudi Arabia is looking at expanding the pipeline that pumps oil from its eastern fields to its export port of Yambu on its Red Sea coast. Iraq is looking at pipelines to Turkey and or Syria.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey have agreed to revive the Ottoman-era Riyadh Railway. Typically, such projects take two to four years to build. None of that will reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz or erase dependence totally.
Liquefied natural gas has to be transported on ships.
[Anchor] On the other side, you have the Yemenis. The Houthis, they are also a joker in the Iran war deck of cards. That is, if the Houthis choose to expand the war to the Gulf’s other strategic waterway, the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
[James M. Dorsey] Indeed, developing alternative export routes may not be smooth sailing. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels threaten to interrupt shipping in the Bab al-Mandab waterway that links the Suez Canal and the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. Amid rising tensions, the Houthis could also choose to attack Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea port of Yambu.
Tensions are rising after the Saudi-supported internationally recognised government bombed Sana’a’s Houthi-controlled international airport to prevent an Iranian airliner from landing. The government and Saudi Arabia have blockaded the airport for years. In response, the Houthis attacked a Saudi airport.
The Houthis this week threatened to attack Saudi shipping in the Bab al-Mandab waterway, as well as oil and other critical infrastructure. Adding to the uncertainty, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warn that U.S. and U.S. allied shipping through Bab al-Mandab could also be at risk.
[Anchor] Hmm. Then Israel is another joker in the game as the prime minister heads to Washington, his eighth visit in 18 months.
[James M. Dorsey] Netanyahu originally planned to travel to the United States tomorrow, Saturday. Officially, he was travelling to attend the funeral of Lindsey Graham. The Republican senator was close to Trump and a pillar of diminishing support for Israel in the U.S. Congress. Netanyahu has postponed his trip to later this month because Graham’s funeral was rescheduled. Inevitably, the trip will involve a meeting with Trump, his eighth in 18 months, and possibly his most difficult one. U.S. and Israeli interests are diverging, and support for Israel in Congress and among the American public is eroding. Trump has suggested that Israel has to prepare for the withdrawal of its troops from Lebanon and Syria. Vice President J.D. Vance criticised in stark words an Israeli-funded social media campaign to thwart a negotiated end to the Iran war. Almost half of Democrats in the House of Representatives voted to halt aid to Israel in a resolution that did not pass, but was indicative of the shifting attitudes towards the Jewish state.
The stakes are high for both Netanyahu and Trump, with midterm U.S. congressional elections in November and general elections in Israel in late October.
[Anchor] James, thank you very much for your time. Much appreciated on Radio Islam International.
[James M. Dorsey] As always, I look forward to the next session.
[Anchor] Thank you. Bye-bye.
