James discusses stuttering US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland on Pakistan TV
Transcript
[Anchor Mahnoor Qureshi] We have seen the role which Pakistan is playing. We have already discussed about the shift in the geopolitics of the world. We have already discussed about the emergence of new leaders of the regional politics.
I must say that the multi-polarity is quite shifting in the region, but we cannot deny the impact which Israeli lobby having in US politics because despite repeated diplomatic efforts and the signing of Islamabad MOU, renewed Israeli military actions and escalating tensions have repeatedly threatened to derail the fragile peace process, turning Israel into a major spoiler of regional peace efforts.
The challenge before the mediator right now is whether diplomacy can withstand this kind of recurring violations as Pakistan is mediating alongside with Qatar. And we have seen that today the technical talks are being unfolded in Switzerland. To discuss about that we are joined by Senior Analyst Dr. James Dorsey. He has joined us from Singapore. Dr. James, welcome to the show. As we are trying to unfold different aspects of these technical talks that actually begin in Switzerland.
What do you think that? Can diplomacy or the mediating efforts played by Pakistan and Qatar survive the recurring military escalations in the region by the Israeli military?
[James M. Dorsey] I think there are several issues here. First of all, let me address the issue why Pakistan. Pakistan’s foremost advantage as opposed to Qatar as a mediator was twofold.
It was not a combatant. It was not being – it was in no form or fashion part of the hostilities and therefore was an obvious mediator. Qatar had withdrawn initially its willingness to mediate because it had been a target of the Iranians but later came back in.
The second issue about the mediation that we have to keep in mind is the reason that we have mediators. And that reason is that the Iranians by and large did not want to talk to the Americans directly and therefore you needed an intermediary. Now, coming to the negotiations as they’re happening now, I think there are two sets of issues.
The first set of issues is with one or two exceptions. The memorandum of understanding is a set of principles. There are no interpretations of what those principles mean in the memorandum of understanding and certainly no mechanisms of how they would be implemented.
And as a result of that, what you have is different interpretations on the part of the Americans and on the part of the Iranians. So, for example, what does paragraph 1 or clause 1 of the memorandum, which refers to Lebanon, mean? Does it mean an immediate halt to hostilities?
Basically, I think what we’re seeing is that both sides agree on that. What the Iranians want to see, the Americans stepping in to ensure that that happens. But, for example, on the issue of release of U.S. funds, it’s not clear what that means. There is some talk of some $6 billion that are at the moment in parking guttery banks, that that would be made available to the Iranians, but only for humanitarian purposes. I don’t think that that is the way the Iranians interpret a release of their funds. They want total control of that.
Now, the second issue that you have is that there are very different approaches to these negotiations. The American approach is, this is what we want, and this is what we’re going to get. And if we don’t get it, we have the option of going back to war.
Not that President Trump wants a return to war, but nonetheless, that’s a stick that’s being waved continuously. And four months into this war, what we’ve seen is the stick doesn’t work. And on the other hand, you have the Iranians who say, we’ve agreed on this, we want proof of concept.
We want to see that you are serious about implementing this memorandum of understanding.
[Anchor Mahnoor Qureshi] Dr. James, that’s the very important point when it comes to any memorandum, especially when it comes to U.S. or Israel, because we have seen the violations of ceasefire before and as well in Lebanon, in Gaza. So what do you think that, when it comes to Israeli lobby in U.S., we have seen that it is actually a prominent lobby, influencing the political discussions and political decisions there. So what do you think that, as we have seen the actual remarks of J.D. Burns towards Israel. So what do you think that, to what extent have Israeli actions complicated the implementation of MOU? And what do you think that, is Israel acting independently to these, you know, or these kind of engagements reflect their overall policy, their overall doctrine towards the world and especially for the Middle East?
[James M. Dorsey] Well, I think what you’re seeing in Lebanon, that both Hezbollah and Israel are complicating the implementation for very different reasons. But nonetheless, they both are using military force despite the call for a total ceasefire and a halt to hostilities. I also think, sure, the Israeli lobby is very powerful.
There’s little doubt about that. But we’ve seen some of the most critical remarks being made by the U.S. President, by the Vice President, and by the U.S. President, by the way, in the last hour or two, in which he said that the Israelis, the only thing the Israelis understand is bombing buildings. And so that, you know, would speak against the Israeli lobby being all-powerful.
I don’t think that many people question that there is going to be pressure on Israel by the United States to halt the fighting in Lebanon and ultimately, presumably, for a withdrawal under whatever conditions. So, you know, in many ways, the Israel lobby today is fighting a backbench battle.
[Anchor Mahnoor Qureshi] All right. So we have already discussed about that the governance of such kind of ceasefire is actually the point of discussion and point of concern. So what do you think that at this stage, at this stage of technical talks, what mechanism can be introduced to prevent the military escalation, military aspects, which are actually undermining the diplomatic process and which are actually undermining the efforts of the mediators?
[James M. Dorsey] Well, first of all, I’m not sure that we’re having technical talks yet. The Iranians have said that they’re not in Switzerland for technical talks. They say they’re in Switzerland to implement those parts of the memorandum of understanding that should be implemented immediately.
The Americans are there with very different goals. You heard the vice president in the last hour or two talk about the Strait of Hormuz and that, of course, following the Iranian threat to close the strait again, and about ending the nuclear programme. As far as the Iranians are concerned, the nuclear programme is not yet on the agenda.
That comes further down the line. So at this point, I think the very question that you’re asking about mechanisms and how this is going to be done is exactly what’s being discussed now.
[Anchor Mahnoor Qureshi] All right. So, Dr. James, you’re a senior analyst. What do you think the role which Pakistan is playing right now, because Pakistan is emerging as a regional leader?
I have already posed this question to my other panellists as well. But when it comes to Pakistan, considering the geopolitical situation in the region where we are actually witnessing a lot of border crisis as well, economic crisis, and other domestic issues, still Pakistan is playing an important role and is praised by the vice president of U.S. How do you look at it? Is Pakistan becoming more relevant in the crisis situation of the world, or it is considered as the most trustworthy option to talk to when it comes to the Middle Eastern crisis, when it comes to U.S. and its relations with the neighbouring countries, or with other countries in the Middle East or Gulf?
[James M. Dorsey] I think we’ve had an evolution in the mediation. For the longest period of time, Pakistan was the only mediator, backed up by what is called the Quad, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia. What we’re seeing now is that it’s Pakistan and Qatar that are the mediators, and they play a very important role.
And, you know, one could only have praise for the Pakistani contribution. But it’s now the Pakistanis and the Qataris, and I think if you now get face-to-face negotiations, in a sense the media’s role is going to be somewhat reduced.
[Anchor Mahnoor Qureshi] And it is very important to discuss about when it comes to the proper peace process, when it comes to, as you have mentioned, that it is just a phase, not a technical talk, so what do you think that? Does the absence of Israel from the negotiation framework right now, itself it is actually a structural weakness in the relation between U.S. and Israel?
[James M. Dorsey] Well, clearly Israel joined, or the United States joined Israel, whichever way you want to look at it, in attacking Iran on February 28th. So as a result of that, Israel should be at the negotiating table. You could argue that if you’re going to try and impose a ceasefire in Lebanon, not only Israel, but also Hezbollah should be at the table.
The fact of the matter is that on two fronts, the memorandum of understanding implies commitments by third parties who were not at the negotiating table. Israel in Lebanon and the Gulf states with regard to the reconstruction fund for Iran. And you’ve already heard Gulf states say, we were not at the table, this does not commit us.
[Anchor Mahnoor Qureshi] All right, all right. Thank you so much, Dr. James M. Dorsey, for joining in the special transmission of Islamabad, the MOU. We were joined by a senior analyst from Singapore, Dr. James M. Dorsey, and we were unfolding different aspects of this high stake, high level technical talks that are being held in Switzerland. And we are just discussing about the different aspects of it, be it the military aspect, be it the economic aspect. As we have seen, this war unfolded different aspects, be it ideological aspect or military or economic aspect of it. And then we have already discussed about the role which Pakistan is playing right now, from quiet diplomacy to shuttle diplomacy to bringing all the stakeholders on table.
Pakistan is prominent in facilitating the peace talks, in facilitating the dialogue, in facilitating the peace in the region. And we, in this transmission, trying to keep you posted about the latest happenings from Switzerland. So that’s it.
This is your host, Mahnoor Qureshi, signing off. Keep watching the special transmission of Islamabad, MOU on Pakistan TV.
Thank you for joining The Turbulent World. I’m honoured that you spend time with my work, given that we live in a world of information overload in which time and attention come at a premium. The Turbulent World offers in-depth, independent, evidence-based, and original geopolitical analysis of the Middle East, the Muslim world, and the rise of civilisational leaders that goes beyond what mainstream media offer.
Paid subscribers make The Turbulent World possible. They have full access to all postings, podcasts, and videos as well as the newsletter’s multi-year archive. They can post comments and get one-on-one briefings on demand. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber. This is as good a time as any other to subscribe.
