The US elections, not ceasefire talks, likely to shape Israel’s wars

Iranian politician and prosecutor Mostafa Pourmohammadi stares down Donal J. Trump in an Iranian election poster

By James M. Dorsey

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Next week’s US election rather than a US-led push for ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, is likely to determine the course of Israel’s wars, no more so than with Iran.

A post-election escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran would overshadow, if not render obsolete whatever progress CIA Director Bill Burns may make on Gaza in talks in Cairo this week.

The same is true for President Joe Biden’s Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and Lebanon negotiator Adam Hochstein, who were in Israel to advance a ceasefire agreement that Lebanese caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati initially said could be achieved within days.