Syrian rebels are gunning for Damascus. Turkey may like the prospect.

Syrian rebel advance. Source: Reddit

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Syrian rebels know what they want. Having captured two of Syria’s four largest cities, Aleppo and Hamas the insurgents are gunning for Homs, the country’s third largest urban center, and then the capital Damascus.

The rebels barely announced their capture of Hama, Syria’s fourth largest city, when video emerged of a long line of rebel military vehicles heading toward Homs, 45 kilometres further south on the M5 highway that stretches from Syria’s border with Turkey to the border with Jordan and connects the country’s foremost urban centers.

The rebels are already eying Damascus. Syrian state media reported the downing on Thursday of two “enemy” drones above the capital.

Syria’s M5 highway

The closer the rebels get to Damascus, the harder the going is likely to get, particularly with President Bashar al-Assad’s Iranian and Russian backers unlikely to let Syria go without a fight.

In televised remarks, Defense Minister General Ali Mahmoud Abbas insisted Syrian troops “redeployed” to the outskirts of Hama ”in a “temporary tactical measure.”

The minister alleged that the rebels had used artificial intelligence to create “fabricated” news to “fake” the capture of Hama and undermine the military’s morale.

Syrian Minister of Defense, General Ali Mahmoud Abbas says troops in Hama “redeployed.” Credit: Visegrad

For policymakers in Tehran and Moscow the question is whether Mr. Al-Assad’s forces have the stomach for a fight. The loss of Aleppo and Hama in little more than a week has to make them wonder.

The calculation for policymakers in Ankara, the Turkish capital, is very different. Senior Turkish officials have been testing the waters in talks with their Iranian and Russian counterparts as well as in contacts with US President-elect Donald J. Trump’s entourage on how far the rebels, who maintain close ties to Turkey, can go without upsetting Turkish apple carts in Washington, Moscow, and Tehran.

So far, the rebels have advanced further than many would have expected.