James discusses this week’s Iran war developments, Gulf splits on post-war relations with Iran, and the Middle East’s shadow hanging over the 2026 World Cup.
Transcript
[Anchor Habib] Yes, joining us this morning is James M. Dorsey, who is an award-winning scholar and journalist with a different perspective on the Middle East and a senior fellow at S. Rajaratnam School for International Studies at Singapore. James, thank you very much for your time and welcome to Radio Islam International.
[James M. Dorsey] Habib, always a pleasure to be with you.
[Anchor Habib] James, let’s start off. The US-Iranian tit-for-tat in the Strait of Hormuz amounts to a game of chicken that risks spinning out of control.
[James M. Dorsey] Indeed, the risk is enhanced by President Donald Trump’s impatience with the grinding process of indirect negotiations to reopen the strategic strait and end the Iran war, and the President’s insistence, amplified by senior administration officials, that the United States could revert to military action. Having said that, the tit-for-tat is as much a calibrated effort by both the United States and Iran to frame the exchanges as not rising to the level of a breach of the fragile ceasefire, as they are a window on what a revival of hostilities might look like. A possible next flashpoint could be a very large crude carrier, or VLCC, reportedly loading two million barrels of oil at Iran’s main Kharg Island oil export terminal.
The super tanker is the first such vessel to load since April 28. The US Navy is likely to intercept the VLCC if it attempts to pass through the strait. Further afield, Lebanon is another potential flashpoint, with the chances of a newly announced ceasefire already being dashed.
[Anchor Habib] So, convincing Iran to compromise is only one part of the challenge facing US President Donald Trump. Even if negotiations move forward, reaching a deal that allows him to bring the conflict to an end remains a difficult task.
[James M. Dorsey] Indeed, an 11-year-old law, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review, or INARA, adopted by Congress to limit President Barack Obama as he negotiated the 2015 international agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear programme, could come to haunt Trump. INARA obliges the President to transmit an agreement with Iran to Congress within five calendar days, and for Cabinet members to provide briefings. It also blocks the President from implementing the deal for up to two months while Congress considers it and gives lawmakers the ability to block the deal, though that would be subject to a President’s veto.
INARA, coupled with Trump’s abrogation of the 2015 agreement, and the fact that the United States and Iran twice in the last year waged war against Iran while engaging in negotiations with the Islamic Republic, is one more reason why Iran demands that any deal be anchored in a United Nations Security Council resolution. It also is a reason why Iran complicates negotiations by insisting that it will retain control of the Strait of Hormuz as a form of leverage, while guaranteeing unfettered shipping through the waterway at pre-war levels.
[Anchor Habib] So countries across the Middle East are increasingly planning for a future in which Iran remains a permanent and influential player in the region, even if they are reluctant to say this openly.
[James M. Dorsey] Yes, disregard the US, European, Iraqi, and Gulf states’ rejection of Iran’s insistence that it will control the Strait of Hormuz no matter what. The fact of the matter is that Middle Eastern states are factoring a permanent Iranian control into their longer-term thinking about shaping the region’s post-war balance of power and security architecture, even though they may not admit as much publicly. Already, the public US, European, and Gulf state consensus rejecting Iran’s imposition of fees on ships transiting the Strait appears to be fracturing.
Speaking at last week’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister Abdur Rahman Al Thani broke ranks by declaring that a temporary fee would be negotiable. Al Thani’s gesture reflects Qatar’s need to see the Strait open sooner rather than later.
[Anchor Habib] And then finally, with an unprecedented eight teams competing, the Middle East is cast in its long shadow over this year’s World Cup, not always for the right reasons.
[James M. Dorsey] The shadow may not always cloud the pitch, even though several teams could spring a surprise. Think of Tunisia in 2022 beating France, Saudi Arabia defeating Argentina, and Morocco reaching the semi-finals in the Qatar World Cup, the first African team to make it to the Final Four. In this year’s tournament, imagine the United States, the first World Cup organiser to host a team from a country with which it is at war, playing Iran at some point during the tournament, or Iran encountering Qatar or Saudi Arabia, countries it has bombed during the war and continues to threaten.
Similarly, the question is what welcome the Iranian squad can expect in Trump’s America, whose border crossings many Muslims and non-Muslims concerned about politically and racially motivated harassment and invasions of privacy dread, and that has earned the country a reputation of being anything but visitor and migrant friendly. Iran may be the Middle East’s largest shadow darkening the World Cup, but it is not the only So do the shadows of FIFA’s at times torturous refusal to hold Israel to account for its violations of the organisation’s statutes and international law by allowing West Bank settler teams to compete in Israeli leagues and as Israeli teams in international tournaments. It was a pleasure to be with you.
[Anchor Habib] Thank you. Bye-bye.
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